Three Theories on the Arrest of 'El Mayo Zambada': Betrayal, Deception, or Just an Agreement?
This is a collaboration between the YouTube channel Armapedia—specializing in weaponry and military analysis—and SAGA.
Jorge Rojas, Luis Chaparro
EL PASO, Texas.— Several days have passed since the arrest of Ismael El Mayo Zambada, one of the most influential leaders of the Sinaloa cartel, former leader of the Mayitos faction, and a prominent figure in Mexican drug trafficking for the last five decades. Despite the abundance of information, numerous statements from key individuals, and supposed official versions, there remains an atmosphere of unease and inconsistencies surrounding this case, especially concerning the question: Did El Mayo voluntarily surrender to U.S. authorities, or was he captured and sent to the United States?
Now, with more data available and after consulting numerous articles, statements from political authorities in the United States and Mexico, and consulting lawyers and journalists specializing in these matters, three theories have been constructed about how El Mayo Zambada was really detained. All these have gaps, things that cannot be easily proven or connected.
The topic of cartels, the United States and Mexico, the DEA, captures, surrenders, and secret agreements rarely concludes in a complete, clear narrative free of conspiracy theories.
Before delving into the different theories about the detention of El Mayo Zambada, I recommend watching the video we published on the Armapedia YouTube channel a few weeks ago. In it, Jorge Rojas provides a detailed analysis of who El Mayo Zambada is, why he was one of the most powerful kingpins in Mexico, a concise explanation of the factions of the Sinaloa cartel, and the key events of July 25, 2024, when El Mayo and El Chapo's son were detained. This context is essential for a deep understanding of the theories.
“EL MAYO WAS KIDNAPPED BY JOAQUIN GUZMAN LOPEZ, EL CHAPO'S SON, AND TAKEN TO THE UNITED STATES AGAINST HIS WILL”
This theory is crucial because it has been adopted as the official version. This claim is based on statements provided directly by Frank Pérez, El Mayo Zambada's personal and current lawyer, to the Los Angeles Times newspaper. Frank Pérez states the following:
"My client did not surrender nor negotiate any terms with the U.S. government. Joaquín Guzmán López, El Chapo's son, kidnapped my client by force." "Then, he was ambushed, thrown to the ground, and handcuffed by six men in military uniforms along with Joaquín. They tied his legs and placed a black bag over his head. Then they threw him into the back of a truck and took him to an airstrip. There, he was forced to board a plane, Joaquín tied his legs to the seat, and they brought him to the United States against his will."
This is the current lawyer's version of El Mayo Zambada. However, a more detailed and elaborate version by renowned journalists and authors Ioan Grillo from CrashOut Media and Juan Alberto Cedillo, a collaborator for the EFE agency and correspondent for Proceso, is based on information obtained from a former member of Zambada's security team. According to them, the situation is as follows:
"El Mayo" Zambada was summoned to a meeting in Culiacán, the capital of Sinaloa, supposedly involving Joaquín Guzmán López, representative of the Chapitos faction, and Sinaloan politician Héctor Melesio Cuén. El Mayo had arrived from one of his hideouts in the Durango mountains to Culiacán a week earlier for a medical consultation regarding cancer he is suffering from, and days later, attended the meeting in Culiacán. However, Guzmán López, El Chapo's son and El Mayo's godson, had plans to betray him. Upon arriving at the house located in the Huertos del Pedregal subdivision, five gunmen loyal to Guzmán López ambushed El Mayo, subduing four of his bodyguards, whose whereabouts are still unknown. One additional bodyguard and El Mayo's personal assistant, who were in a vehicle behind, managed to escape the ambush, and their whereabouts are also unknown.
The assailants subdued El Mayo with some violence and transported him approximately 35 km by car to Lazareto Ranch, where he was forced to board a plane. Although not confirmed, it is speculated that they might have made a stop at another airport in Sonora to possibly change planes. From Hermosillo, Sonora, El Mayo, along with Guzmán López and the pilot, flew to the United States. During this time, U.S. authorities were notified, who, according to their statements, had no idea El Mayo Zambada was on the plane. Finally, they landed around 4:00 p.m. on Thursday, July 25, 2024, at the small private airport of Santa Teresa, near El Paso, Texas, where they were detained by U.S. federal agents.
While there are still several inconsistencies in this improved official version, so to speak, one particular element could lend GREATER credibility to this version: the mentioned politician who was to attend the meeting, Héctor Melesio Cuén, former rector of UAS and elected federal deputy for the opposition alliance PAN-PRD-PRI and the Sinaloan Party, was assassinated on the night of Thursday, July 25, 2024, the same day El Mayo was arrested. The incident occurred during an alleged robbery attempt at a gas station in La Presita, north of Culiacán, Sinaloa. According to reports, Cuén resisted the robbery and was attacked by two individuals who shot him. Although the state prosecutor's office claims it was a robbery, Cuén might have been the first victim of revenge for what is being described in Sinaloa as the great “betrayal” in the Sinaloa cartel.
An additional detail is that several media outlets have reported that the King Air plane did not take off from Hermosillo, Sonora, as initially stated, but from the community of El Zorrillo in the state of Chihuahua. This change in location alters several aspects of the official narrative. OSINT specialists have geolocated and linked various points and available videos of aircraft from the same company, but in Chihuahua, suggesting that the idea that the plane took off from Hermosillo might be incorrect.
The first reason this theory, in any of its versions, seems strange is: how is it possible that El Chapo's son managed to deceive the mastermind El Mayo Zambada and his entire security team to successfully kidnap him? I think we all know that El Mayo has earned a reputation for being intelligent, cunning, and cautious for five decades; to the point that when he contracted COVID-19, he did not leave the mountains for fear of being captured by the authorities, so it seems unlikely that he would suddenly become an easily manipulable target by one of El Chapo's young sons.
The second reason this scenario is hard to believe is that it would have triggered an open war throughout Sinaloa from the early hours of the arrest. Imagine being Ismael Zambada Sicairos, El Mayito Flaco, El Mayo's son and heir to the Mayiza faction: your father is kidnapped, beaten, mistreated, and then sent on a plane to be imprisoned in the United States in his final years of life. It's hard to think that El Mayito Flaco would allow such a disregard for his father and faction without launching severe retaliation against Los Chapitos or anyone involved. So far, there has been no such response, and even if it came after more than a week or several, it would seem strange and unconvincing, even making me doubt this theory more.
As a direct precedent, let's remember the event known as the "Culiacanazo" or black Thursday in October 2019. When Ovidio Guzmán, "El Ratón," was captured by the Mexican government, members of the Chapitos and other Sinaloa factions did not wait a minute to react. They clashed in Culiacán against the police, the National Guard, and the entire army to recover him, and surprisingly, he was eventually released. Although he was recaptured later, on both occasions, there was an immediate response from the Sinaloa cartel. Why didn't the same happen with El Mayo, a figure with even more elevated respect?
“DEA AGENTS KIDNAPPED EL MAYO AND EL CHAPO'S SON IN MEXICO AND TOOK THEM ILLEGALLY TO THE UNITED STATES”
This theory, frankly, is the most exciting. Although it initially seems fantastical, there is a precedent and key points that could lend it much validity.
On July 30, 2024, José Luis González Meza, personal lawyer of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, gave an interview to Mexican journalist Pascal Beltrán del Río for Imagen Noticias, in which he called the official version about the trap for El Mayo by El Chapo's son, theory 1, a "Walt Disney story." He textually described it as pure "fantasy."
Furthermore, he expressed his belief that both Zambada and El Chapo's son were kidnapped by DEA agents in Mexico and then transported illegally on a King Air 250 plane to a Santa Teresa airport near El Paso, Texas, already on U.S. soil.
During the conversation, El Chapo's lawyer and journalist Beltrán del Río raised crucial hypotheses, such as who was the owner of the Beechcraft King Air 250 plane, in which Mayo Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López finally traveled?
“According to the flight log, the ownership of the plane, the company, and the country, as well as the pilots' details, must be clearly registered. Therefore, if the plane took off from Mexico, it did so illegally, as neither El Mayo nor El Chapo's son voluntarily flew to the United States,” the lawyer emphasized.
Additionally, journalist Beltrán del Rio mentioned the following: “We also know that the plane had a cloned registration and its transponder was turned off until it reached U.S. territory, thus avoiding detection and tracking during the flight over Mexican territory.”
If we consider that this theory is true, it raises very delicate questions. Can DEA agents capture cartel leaders at will in the territory of Mexico, a sovereign country, and extradite them to the United States? Theoretically, no, it would be completely illegal. Have they done it before? Yes.
And that brings us to the story of Dr. Álvarez Machain. During the presidency of Carlos Salinas de Gortari in 1990, the gynecologist Humberto Álvarez Machain from Jalisco was kidnapped from his clinic by DEA agents and Mexican police. This act was carried out without the knowledge or approval of the Mexican government, thus violating national sovereignty and bilateral extradition agreements. Álvarez Machain was illegally taken to the United States, where he was accused of participating in the 1985 murder of DEA agent Enrique "Kiki" Camarena, allegedly orchestrated by the Guadalajara cartel. The accusation claimed that Dr. Álvarez Machain had administered drugs to Kiki Camarena during his captivity to keep him alive while he was tortured and interrogated. The doctor's defense consistently argued the lack of concrete evidence and the illegality of the capture and extradition process. Finally, in 1992, a U.S. federal judge dismissed the charges against Álvarez Machain due to insufficient evidence, ordering his release and return to Mexico.
How does this relate to the case of El Mayo Zambada? The primary suspicion of the kidnapping by DEA agents arises because kidnapping El Mayo is an extremely complex and surgical task. Not just anyone can do it successfully without dying in the attempt. Additionally, there is the precedent that this has already happened. According to statements from the Mexican government, there was no prior notification about DEA operations or any other federal agency in Mexican territory.
Even if Mexican government members had been informed, the actions would have been different, probably involving Mexican agents in the operation. But it wouldn't have been this way; the individuals involved would have been initially imprisoned in a maximum-security prison like El Altiplano in Mexico and then extradited to the United States through a proper legal process, respecting bilateral treaties and agreements between both countries. This has been the procedure for years.
Therefore, what José Luis González Meza, El Chapo's lawyer, suggested is that the U.S. government and the DEA acted illegally by capturing Mayo Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López and should return them to Mexico to be judged in their home country. Although this seems unlikely to happen, it is not entirely impossible, as demonstrated in the case of Dr. Machain. However, it must be considered that Machain did not hold a leadership position in a transnational drug cartel like the Sinaloa cartel.
As mentioned, this version, although very exciting, also has gaps and does not completely explain all the details. However, personally, it seems more coherent than theory 1, which is the official version.
"EL MAYO MADE A DEAL WITH THE DEA TO SEE HIS CHILDREN"
Sometimes we lean towards believing the most intriguing and exciting version, but often reality is much simpler and “boring,” in quotes. This theory suggests that this is the case with "El Mayo," who simply surrendered because he was extremely ill and wanted to see his children.
This is one of the theories held by many experts on the subject of Mexican cartels, not those who simply read a TV teleprompter, but those who have dedicated years of their lives to the deep study of Mexican cartels, their evolution, and their modus operandi.
If we analyze it coldly, making a deal with U.S. authorities, especially the DEA, was the only way for El Mayo to see his children, considering that three of them are in the United States: El Mayito Gordo is in prison, El Vicentillo, his favorite, is a protected witness of the U.S. government and cannot leave the country, and Serafin, El Flaco, is a U.S. citizen, finding himself in a very complicated situation. Additionally, Jesús Reynaldo Zambada, aka El Rey, El Mayo's brother, is also in prison in the United States.
Life is finite. El Mayo knows this very well. At 76 years old, he suffers from diabetes, probably also from cancer, is losing his sight, and his greatest desire is to be close to his children. He likely analyzed his options and said to himself, I must surrender to the Americans before my illness and age render me immobile, to see them one last time. It’s that simple. Although this version does not fully explain why one of El Chapo's sons was on that plane, nor does it entirely explain why Ovidio Guzmán was moved from prison two days before El Mayo's capture. This, as you can see, is an absolute mystery or a very suspicious coincidence.
Furthermore, there are precedents of negotiations between the Zambada family and the DEA. These negotiations culminated in the release of El Mayo's favored son, Vicentillo, who now enjoys protected witness status, and his statements led to El Chapo Guzmán’s life imprisonment.
Obviously, the version of surrender does not appeal to El Mayo, as it makes him seem weak and a traitor to the organization he founded. Undoubtedly, a narrative in which he was deceived or kidnapped sounds better for his image. However, the reality for any kingpin, especially in their final years, often boils down to a fundamental element: family.
El Mayo wants to fill that deeply human void, even for a super kingpin of Mexican drug trafficking. This is what El Mayo desires to happen before facing the inevitable that awaits us all, regardless of power or wealth: death.
The arrest of Ismael El Mayo Zambada remains shrouded in mystery, with three primary theories emerging: kidnapping by El Chapo's son, a covert DEA operation, or a negotiated surrender. Each theory has its own set of supporting evidence and inconsistencies. As more information becomes available, the true story may eventually come to light, but for now, the capture of one of Mexico's most elusive drug lords continues to intrigue and baffle observers worldwide.