Mexico’s Coming Reckoning — and the Only Man Who Might Break Morena’s Grip

Mexico doesn’t need another party. It needs a rupture.

By Ghaleb Krame

Mexico stands at a dangerous crossroads. Seven years into the López Obrador era —and with Claudia Sheinbaum now in office— the ruling party Morena still dominates the political arena. It controls the narrative, the budget, the state machinery, and in many cases, even the rules of the game. What it no longer controls is legitimacy. Behind the populist slogans, a darker truth has emerged: mounting evidence of collusion with organized crime, political violence as electoral strategy, and an opposition that’s either coopted or irrelevant.

From 2021 to 2024, elections in Mexico weren’t won by persuasion or popularity. They were secured through a mixture of clientelism, narco-funding, and targeted violence. Candidates were murdered. Campaign teams were abducted. The ballot box became another battlefield. Yet within this grim context, one unlikely figure may now represent the only viable challenge to the system: Ricardo Salinas Pliego.

A controversial billionaire and media mogul, Salinas is no political outsider. But he is a system-outsider —and that’s precisely what makes him dangerous to Morena. He brings money, visibility, and most of all, a radically different political philosophy: a form of Mexican libertarianism rooted in individualism, limited government, digital disruption, and moral autonomy. Unlike the populist left, he doesn’t promise people more state power. He promises them less interference.

While other would-be contenders —like the technocratic center or the moralistic citizen front— fail to excite or mobilize, Salinas cuts through the noise with something rare: clarity. He openly advocates for Bitcoin and criticizes fiat money. He defends same-sex marriage and abortion rights, but resists ideological impositions from either left or right. He proposes lowering income taxes, replacing them with consumption-based systems, and promoting merit-based prosperity instead of welfare dependency.

What he rejects most of all is centralized power. In fact, he has floated the idea of transforming Mexico’s overly presidential regime into a semi-presidential or participatory democracy —one grounded in technological transparency and decentralized governance. In a country where authority is too often personalized, this is a radical stance.

Critics call him egotistical or authoritarian. Yet Salinas’ record suggests something more nuanced: he is disruptive, but disciplined; ideological, yet practical. He expanded Grupo Elektra from 50 to over 6,000 stores. He created Banco Azteca for the unbanked poor. Now he’s launching a low-cost national pharmacy network to tackle the collapse of public healthcare.

Of course, his candidacy is far from guaranteed. He faces structural obstacles: no party machinery, media hostility, and likely retaliation from entrenched political interests. But this may also be his strength. In an age of disillusionment, only someone who doesn’t need the system can challenge it. Only someone with independent resources, a direct digital relationship with millions of followers, and a message that transcends the left-right binary can mobilize the rising “mobile class” —those stuck between working poverty and middle-class aspiration.

Washington should pay attention. The future of Mexico will not be decided solely by who occupies the National Palace —but by whether the country can break free from the fusion of cartels, state power, and false populism. In this scenario, Ricardo Salinas Pliego may not be the perfect candidate —but he may be the only candidate capable of shifting the game board.

Mexico doesn’t need another party. It needs a rupture.